Need some advice!

So last night I had my ex over and we were messing around, did not have sex. He went down on me and rubbed his penis up against me and we were both unclothed... this morning I get up and unknown to my knowledge I have a small outbreak. I'm really bummed because I'm very in tune with my body and this time I didn't have any signs or prodrome! What are the odds of me passing it to him?

The overall odds are 4% per year with no antivirals or condoms. Higher just before, during, and after an outbreak, but there's no way to quantify a single incident.

Seems I read 75% chance of transmission if you have an ob

I understand that.. we didn't have sex... he just rubbed it on my vagina once or twice.

Prob a slim chance then