A blog about Herpes with some stats on transmission I found

Interesting

If transmission rates "that" low, all I can say is wow... and it is right abt the fact that asymtomatic carriers are more likely to transmit the virus cause they don't know their symtoms (my case). This certainly gave me hope. I was throwing myself a pity party 5 mins ago...

I can't imagine what the numbers would be if everyone got tested as part of their yearly physical.

Herpes is so common yet it is so stigmatised ......I think things would be very different if it was included in the STD general testing . It would become much more commonplace, more people would be aware of it in general, more people would be disclosing to each other (hopefully) and maybe it would start being less of a 'big deal' . We need a campaign !

Nice blog - interesting that she used at least one reference to data on here :)

BUT

The Statistics she's used are flawed.

By avoiding sex during an active outbreak, chances of virus transmission are 4% a year (Terri Warren, RN, NP – WebMD, 2005). Yes, per year, not sexual session. In the study that this is based off, couples were reported to have sex more than 5 times a month. Over 60% of the couples did not use condoms.

So if we look at the findings at the frequent end of the scale we would divide this figure by 120 (12 months x 10 sexual encounters per month). This makes the possibility of spreading the virus during any sexual encounter .0003%, or 1/3,000 (.04 / 120 = 0.00033333333333).

#1 - The 4% is female to male transmission - it starts at 10% for male to female transmission

#2 - The statistics are 4% -10% assuming sex is had a couple times a week, over the course of the year. But you can't break it down to a "per encounter" statistic. Darned if I know where we already had this conversation ... @Adrial, can you help me here? Do you have the link to this discussion.

It's kinda like if you flip a coin, the statistic for Heads is 50%. If you flip it 100 times, the statistic is STILL 50%.

That said, there's still no need to get all depressed and feel like a walking herpes petri dish. If you actually KNEW the stats for all the things you do in life that have a risk factor that is similar to passing H on, you wouldn't walk out your door every day.

Many of us play sports or have "active" hobbies, and some could cause life-altering injuries to us OR to those we are competing against.

I'm a competitive Swing Dancer and I'll tell you, I'm FAR more afraid of getting hurt by some of the guys I dance with (as in, severely wrenched shoulder or being dropped by them in a "dip") than I am of getting another STD or giving this virus. AND ... even *I* could hurt another dancer in a moment where our bodies just move in the "wrong" way and I am VERY careful to be attentive to my partner (I lead AND follow!).

Look at how many people have been killed while Skiing, Horseback Riding, Snowmobiling or 4 Wheeling, or whatever. Never mind those who are severely injured during those activities.... often because of the carelessness of someone else (ie, the injured person was doing everything right and just got unlucky).

The bottom line is: LIFE. ASSUMES. RISK. At least it will if you are LIVING it!

Ok - so think of it this way...because this is something most do every day...

**I assume you drive a car

**and I assume if that is correct, you may occasionally drive your lover/BF somewhere

**And you BOTH know there is ALWAYS a risk of a car accident no matter how careful you are

**But you drive him anyway, right? Do you obsess day and night that you might injure/kill him every time he gets in your car? I doubt it.

**Why is the possibility of passing on H any different? At least it won't kill him!!!

Think on it :)

#3 - This is the BEST link that the writer referred to:

http://jid.oxfordjournals.org/content/194/1/42.abstract?sid=e67d967a-84df-4763-b938-83d1d649fa1a

Because *WE* know we have Herpes, we are FAR less likely to pass it on. And THAT is HUGE. In the driving example above, if we know our brakes are a little sketchy or the tires need changing, odds are we drive a little more carefully while we are waiting to get them dealt with. But if we hadn't noticed the leak in the brake line or the bulge in the otherwise-full-tread-tire odds are we will drive normally and thus be unwittingly putting other people's lives at stake.

Understanding this may help you to realize that while none of us would have welcomed this virus, if we put it in perspective with other areas of life where we *could* have got unlucky and had some other life-altering affect from our activity, or realizing that we DO put others at risk in many of our daily activities, that Herpes is just the thing where our luck ran out.

That doesn't make us "bad" people, any more than a brain injury from skiing without a helmet (even though you KNEW you should wear one) doesn't make you a "bad" person. Nor are you a "bad" person if you happen to just look the wrong way and you hit another car or cut someone off with your 4 wheeler and someone else gets hurt.

Sometimes shit happens. Few get through life without *some* kind of thing occurring to them that had low odds and high consequences to them or someone else. A few get unlucky and have multiple shitty things happen... and a very lucky few somehow dodge all the shitty bullets. But pretty much everyone out there is dealing with *something* that has challenged them at some point in their life. They just don't advertise it, just like we don't advertise we have H. But it's there.

Abuse. Rape. Metal Illness. War. Disease. Accidents. Whatever. Few of us manage to avoid having **at least** one of these things happen in our lives to challenge us. What matters most is HOW we respond to the event.

And all the statistics in the world won't change ANY of this..... :)

Here's that link you were looking for, Dancer:

http://herpeslife.com/herpes-forum/discussion/5255/from-dr-peter-leone-herpes-transmission-risk-per-sex-act-explained